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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-02T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26298/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a halo CME with a bulk portion seen more predominantly to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The more full halo portion is fairly faint in coronagraph imagery. The source of this CME is an S-shaped filament eruption stretching from roughly N10 to S15. There is clear dimming associated with this source as seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-08-02T08:00Z. This dimming stretches from W10 to W30 within the N10 to S15 latitudes. Arrival signature: clear magnetic field enhancement from 10 to 19 nT and later to about 23 nT along sharp rises in ACE/DSCOVR density, velocity, and temperature parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-05T02:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-06T06:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-08-02T21:22Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 480
Longitude (deg): 17W
Latitude (deg): 09N
Half-angular width (deg): 66

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 56.00 hour(s)
Difference: -27.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-08-02T18:10Z

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